2021年4月

资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀

March marked the one year anniversary of when the government’s top infectious disease expert recommended a 14 day national shutdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus. 虽然病毒仍然是危险的，各种限制仍然存在, 金融市场的大环境形成了鲜明的对比. Sentiment driving markets have flipped from worrying about an abrupt recession and even of depression whispers to reopen optimism and inflation fears.

去年，长达10年的美国经济.S. 第一季度国债收益率为1.9%，然后跌至历史最低点0.4%， 2020年3月9日. 今年, 加速剂疫苗, 新的财政刺激, and the Fed reconfirming its dovish monetary policy are positive drivers for robust economic growth. However, these same catalysts also formed headwinds for fixed income returns.

Upward pressure on yields and inflation fears sparked a bond market selloff in Q1. 从今年零时开始.93%， 10年期美国国债.S. 3月份，美国国债收益率飙升81个基点，收于1个基点.74%. 美国.S. 综合债券指数季度回报(-3.37%)是有记录以来最糟糕的. 国际(5.93%)和EM (-3.债券市场综合指数表现更差. 高级贷款(+ 2.01%)和高收益企业(+0.86%) were the only taxable fixed income categories to generate gains.

The year-over-year dissimilitude in equity markets has been just as extreme. 的年代&P 500历史性的四周暴跌(-34%)于2020年3月23日触底.  今年3月，美国政府宣布退出欧盟.S. benchmark equity index concluded its f拉菲娱乐平台的th consecutive positive quarter and posted its best 12-month rally in 75 years (see 拉菲娱乐平台的 月相图). 道琼斯工业指数创下了33000点的最高纪录&P 500刚刚达到4000.

在S的表面下&P 500的帅6.2021年第一季度回报率为2%，价值型股为+11.3%)粉碎生长(+0.9%)，而小盘股(+12).7%)的两倍大. The shift toward those cyclical sectors viewed as the biggest beneficiaries from 重新开张 propelled the returns of energy (+30.9%)、财务(+ 16.0%)，工业类股(+11.4%).  高市盈率的抛售, growth stocks that began in mid-February continued into March before rebounding slightly the last week of the quarter.

国际(+ 3.5%)和EM (+2.第一季度，美国股市报酬率为正, although they retreated from their early March highs due to inconsistent vaccine rollouts and new Covid variants that impacted some countries worse than others.

在经历了熊市的低谷之后，美国股市进入了第二季度和第二年&P 500 breadth (% of stocks above their 200-day moving average) was at its highest levels since 2009. As noted last month, such broad participation is not indicative of a market top.  More economic good news is still ahead of us including additional fiscal stimulus, 群体免疫, 重新开张, 以及美国国内被压抑的服务需求.S. 储蓄账户处于历史高位的消费者.

Key risks are emerging, yet the critical dynamic continues to be the virus and the vaccine. We will also be mindful of the potential for shocks to global supply chains, 财政资源配置不当(e.g., 基础设施包中的组件), 税收政策的错误, 不断上升的通胀迫使美联储收紧货币政策, 以及地缘政治动荡.

As the vast divide between reality and expectation typically begins to close during Year 2 of recoveries, 拉菲娱乐平台的 月相图 reveals that markets can become more of a grind but also warrants a pro-risk outlook for long-term investors.

 

约翰·西尔维亚的见解， 经济学主任

Last week’s jobs report provided further evidence for the positive outlook for the economy based upon a reading of leading economic indicators such as jobless claims, 工厂订单/发货, 建筑许可和消费者信心. Job gains were present across the major employment categories with a very large gain in the leisure and hospitality sector as many states open even more.

2021年全年, economic growth is expected to be 4% plus which is above the long-term growth trajectory. Therefore, inflation is expected to continue to rise in the year ahead. 这将给投资者带来一些挑战.

• Until recently, the inflation trajectory as well as inflation expectations were downward. 这一轨迹使美联储按兵不动，利率保持在低位. However, with inflation rising, interest rates have tended to follow. 今年年初，10年基准的美国国债. S. 国债利率是0.93%，发生率为1.上周五的74%.
• Rising inflation and benchmark interest rates command a review of y拉菲娱乐平台的 investment strategy with respect to holdings of cash and U.S. 投资组合中的国债.
• Investment opportunities change as the economic recovery evolves often due to changes in inflation, 利率和美元的价值.
• 除了, a new political administration has introduced new priorities with respect to taxes, 能源发展和基础设施. All of these require further details from the administration and may require further review of y拉菲娱乐平台的 portfolio.

Clients have been rewarded by following the fundamentals and taking a longer view of their position. Recessions are part of the economic cycle, but recovery and expansion are longer lasting. 这一点没有改变.

Clients are also rewarded by recognizing that the economy evolves and political priorities change. 拉菲娱乐平台的投资重点也将改变.