Market Perspectives October 2021

Capital Markets

By: Wade Austin

全球股市涨势在9月份陷入停滞，原因是不断累积的不利因素令市场承压. U.S. 股市已经连续七个月上涨，早就该暂停了. Mounting inflation, intensifying supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks, 美联储和世界各国央行的鹰派声明, escalating tensions with signs of gridlock in Washington, fluctuating Covid cases, 而中国第二大房地产开发商的潜在倒闭则是最大的催化剂.

After reaching an all-time high on September 2nd, the S&P 500 retreated 5.1% by month-end. Its -4.6%的总回报是自大流行出现以来最严重的月度损失，也是自1月以来的首次月度下降.  For the third quarter, the U.S. large-cap equity benchmark index eked out a fractional +0.6% gain.

Despite September’s pullback and a flat Q3, the S&P 500 posted an impressive +15.9% YTD total return with all eleven equity sectors gaining ground. 能源股迎来了40年来最好的一年，是9月份唯一的赢家(+9).4%) as oil prices reached 3-year highs. Materials were the laggard (-7.2%). If something more sinister were brewing, we would expect the traditionally defensive sectors (Utilities (-6.2%) and Staples (-4.1%)) to outperform. They did not.

International developed markets (-2.9%) and emerging markets (-4.0%) posted similar declines as the U.S. in September, but these overseas markets declined during Q3 (-0.5%) and (-8.01%) respectively. Due to regulatory crackdowns and Evergrande’s troubles, 中国股市的抛售推动大盘新兴市场指数在今年以来跌至-1.3%). Chinese companies comprise 30% of the EM benchmark equity index.

美联储在9月会议上的温和鹰派言论令债券收益率承压. In response to elevated inflation data (5.3% annualized in August), 美联储暗示可能在年底前开始缩减购债规模. 10-year Treasury note yields ended September at 1.49%，这个月上升了18个基点(bps)，并且从那时起已经超过了1.6%. The broad U.S. aggregate bond index declined (-0.87%)，季度持平，截至目前仍为负(-1).6%). 9月份，所有重要债券类别的回报率均为负值，但TIPS (+1).8%) and high yield corporates (+0.9%) gained ground during Q3.

标题风险无处不在，投资者有理由关注尾部风险. We also find it noteworthy that most stocks within the major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100) have already corrected. See our Chart of the Month. If not for its three largest constituents, the S&P 500 index would have been negative for the quarter. Apple, Microsoft, and Google contributed 75 bps of the index’s return. The other 497 stocks detracted -17 bps.

过去二十年来，美国股市在第四季度表现最佳&P 500 averaging a 4.1% gain. The index hasn’t corrected this year and could at any time. 然而，一些迹象表明，对经济增长的担忧可能已经充分反映在股价中. Fundamentals are sound, 对股市来说，一个有利的背景是:强劲的家庭资产负债表, a powerful corporate capital expenditures cycle, impactful productivity gains, and ample liquidity.

本周第三季度财报季将拉开序幕，由于去年的业绩比较仍然有利，这可能为进一步上涨提供基础. Like Warren Buffett, in our Quote of the Month, and our very own Director of Economics John Silvia often reminds us, 对投资者来说，重要的是关注数据和潜在的经济力量, not narratives driven by political or ideological agendas.

 

Insights by John Silvia, Director of Economics

• 9月份的就业报告强调了劳动力市场和经济的周期性和结构性方面. 在周期性方面，制造业、建筑业和贸易都有坚实的增长 & transportation. Leisure & hospitality did slow but still added jobs. 一个问题是当地学校的就业率下降，这既反映了季节性调整，也表明当地学校已经学会了与更少的教师打交道.
• 结构性问题体现在与2020年2月相比，劳动力和就业人口比例双双下降. 因此，企业抱怨熟练工人的缺乏也就不足为奇了. The demand side of the labor market is strong; however, the supply side is lacking.
• Good news continues from the leading economic indicators, such as jobless claims and factory orders/shipments, 这表明在今年剩下的时间里，经济增长将持续在2%以上的长期趋势之上. 建筑许可已经放缓，这与住房负担能力上升的问题相一致.
• For 2021, economic growth is expected to be 6%, with solid gains in consumer spending, residential investment, and business investment. A slowdown to 4% growth is expected for 2022. 过去一年通胀率不断上升，随着现金和主权债务的实际回报率继续为负，预计这将给投资者带来几项挑战.
• 由于美联储(fed)政策制定者的声明强调很快将逐步缩减购债规模，指标美国国债收益率在过去一个月有所上升. Meanwhile, Treasury debt issuance is expected to decline relative to a year ago, limiting any rise of interest rates as the Fed tapers. 然而，持续的通胀仍是美国国债持有者和买家的一个问题.
• As consistent with Fed policy intentions, we expect inflation and benchmark interest rates to rise, along with a steady decline in the U.S. dollar value. 与美联储意图一致的长期观点是，通胀和利率将上升. 因此，扣除通货膨胀和税收后，实际回报率通常为负.
• Even within an economic expansion, 增长/通胀基准有时会提速，有时会减速，这可能会分散投资者对长期目标的注意力. 随着经济复苏的发展，投资机会和风险也在变化, often due to economic and policy changes. In addition, 新一届政府在税收方面提出了新的优先事项, energy development, and infrastructure. All of these require further review of your portfolio.