By: Wade Austin
全球股市涨势在9月份陷入停滞，原因是不断累积的不利因素令市场承压. U.S. 股市已经连续七个月上涨，早就该暂停了. Mounting inflation, intensifying supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks, 美联储和世界各国央行的鹰派声明, escalating tensions with signs of gridlock in Washington, fluctuating Covid cases, 而中国第二大房地产开发商的潜在倒闭则是最大的催化剂.
After reaching an all-time high on September 2nd, the S&P 500 retreated 5.1% by month-end. Its -4.6%的总回报是自大流行出现以来最严重的月度损失，也是自1月以来的首次月度下降. For the third quarter, the U.S. large-cap equity benchmark index eked out a fractional +0.6% gain.
Despite September’s pullback and a flat Q3, the S&P 500 posted an impressive +15.9% YTD total return with all eleven equity sectors gaining ground. 能源股迎来了40年来最好的一年，是9月份唯一的赢家(+9).4%) as oil prices reached 3-year highs. Materials were the laggard (-7.2%). If something more sinister were brewing, we would expect the traditionally defensive sectors (Utilities (-6.2%) and Staples (-4.1%)) to outperform. They did not.
International developed markets (-2.9%) and emerging markets (-4.0%) posted similar declines as the U.S. in September, but these overseas markets declined during Q3 (-0.5%) and (-8.01%) respectively. Due to regulatory crackdowns and Evergrande’s troubles, 中国股市的抛售推动大盘新兴市场指数在今年以来跌至-1.3%). Chinese companies comprise 30% of the EM benchmark equity index.
美联储在9月会议上的温和鹰派言论令债券收益率承压. In response to elevated inflation data (5.3% annualized in August), 美联储暗示可能在年底前开始缩减购债规模. 10-year Treasury note yields ended September at 1.49%，这个月上升了18个基点(bps)，并且从那时起已经超过了1.6%. The broad U.S. aggregate bond index declined (-0.87%)，季度持平，截至目前仍为负(-1).6%). 9月份，所有重要债券类别的回报率均为负值，但TIPS (+1).8%) and high yield corporates (+0.9%) gained ground during Q3.
标题风险无处不在，投资者有理由关注尾部风险. We also find it noteworthy that most stocks within the major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100) have already corrected. See our Chart of the Month. If not for its three largest constituents, the S&P 500 index would have been negative for the quarter. Apple, Microsoft, and Google contributed 75 bps of the index’s return. The other 497 stocks detracted -17 bps.
过去二十年来，美国股市在第四季度表现最佳&P 500 averaging a 4.1% gain. The index hasn’t corrected this year and could at any time. 然而，一些迹象表明，对经济增长的担忧可能已经充分反映在股价中. Fundamentals are sound, 对股市来说，一个有利的背景是:强劲的家庭资产负债表, a powerful corporate capital expenditures cycle, impactful productivity gains, and ample liquidity.
本周第三季度财报季将拉开序幕，由于去年的业绩比较仍然有利，这可能为进一步上涨提供基础. Like Warren Buffett, in our Quote of the Month, and our very own Director of Economics John Silvia often reminds us, 对投资者来说，重要的是关注数据和潜在的经济力量, not narratives driven by political or ideological agendas.
本网站所提供的资料仅供参考之用, and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to sell or an offer to buy securities, investment products or investment advisory services. 所有资料、意见、意见及估计均可更改或更正，恕不另行通知. 本文中所包含的内容不构成财务、法律、税收或其他建议. 投资或策略的恰当性取决于投资者的环境和目标. 这些观点可能不适合你的财务状况、风险和回报偏好. Investment recommendations may change, 读者在做出任何投资决定之前，都应该咨询一下他们的投资顾问. Information provided is based on public information, 据信可靠的消息来源，但拉菲娱乐平台无法证实其准确性. 对未来业绩的估计是基于可能无法实现的假设. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns. The following indexes were used as proxies in the performance tables: Global Stocks = MSCI ACWI; U.S. Large Cap = S&P 500; U.S. Large Value = Russell 1000 Value; U.S. Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth; U.S. Small Cap = Russell 2000; Int’l Dev Stocks = MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets = MSCI EM; U.S. Inv Grade Bonds = Barclays U.S. Aggregate; U.S. High Yield Bonds = Barclays Corporate High Yield; Emerging Markets Debt = JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified; Int’l Bonds = Barclays Global Treasury ex US; Cash = 3month T-Bill; Sector returns displayed in the chart represent S&P 500 sectors, while treasury benchmarks are from Barclays
Chart of the Month Source: Strategas, YTD as of 10/4/2021.