2020年9月

资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀

Following July’s strong performance and entering a softer stretch of the calendar, 许多人认为，股市将在8月休市. However, investors’ risk-on appetite accelerated in August as the S&P 500得到7.2% and closed at 3500, already surpassing the pre-Covid all-time high of 3386 set on February 19^th. Leading the surge, technology stocks vaulted the NASDAQ index 11.2%高4^th 最好的月. U.S. Small Caps, International, and Emerging Market equity indexes posted solid gains as well.

S之间的间隙&P 500 Growth and Value stocks extended to historically extreme levels by month end (YTD total returns were 26.5% vs. -9.分别为3%).  然而，值得注意的是，Value得到了非常健康的3分.6% in August, and cyclical sectors such as Materials and Industrials quietly had strong momentum.

在固定收益市场，美国股市下跌.S. 10年期美国国债收益率8月收于0.71% – up 18 basis points during the month (they began the year at 1.92%). 值得注意的是，股票股息收益率更高&P 500 (1.国际(2 7%).8%)， EM (2.1%). 随着中间收益率的上升，美国国债的收益率在下降.S. 债券综合指数下跌-0.8%.  Short-term bonds were mostly flat, while the High Yield Bond Index was up 1.0%. 与大型U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings on the rise and on pace to exceed 2009 levels, 对非投资级债务要谨慎.

8月27日^th, the Federal Reserve announced that instead of targeting 2% inflation, it will now target an inflation rate that “averages 2% over time”.  This strategic policy shift is designed to provide the labor market and overall economy with additional support by keeping short-term interest rates low.  Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, low interest rates, and recently declining U.S. Covid-19(死亡率, 住院治疗, and cases) have provided powerful tailwinds for equity markets.

显然，风险仍然很高. 鉴于崇高的估值, markets are vulnerable to disappointments and near-term pullbacks as experienced in early June and again at the time of this writing. The correction in mega-cap technology stocks may prove to be a healthy consolidation of recent extraordinary gains or the beginning of a leadership shift from growth to value.

Valuation metrics are more reliable as a risk management tool than a timing mechanism. Both equities and bonds appear fully valued at current interest rates. 在拉菲娱乐平台的 月相图， ETF自3月23日以来的流动^rd S&P 500 low suggests investor sentiment excesses lie in fixed income, not equities.

约翰·西尔维亚的见解， 经济学主任

Each month we review the jobs numbers published by the federal government for insights into the state of the economy, 个人收入, 和工业生产. 8月份, the job gains were widespread among industries and ethnic groups supporting the case for continued economic recovery.

• 非农就业总人数增加1人.4M. 由部门, 制造业有稳固的增长, 建设, 零售业(反映许多州重新开放), 专业及商业服务, 休闲, 教育, and the federal government (reflecting Census workers hired).
• 失业率降至8.4% – declining for adult men, adult women, and teenagers among most demographic groups.

这一切意味着什么?

• Job gains, along with wage gains, indicate improvement in household incomes. Job gains in 建设 and manufacturing support economic output.
• The outlook for positive economic growth continues to be supported by the basic leading indicators we follow (claims, 建筑许可, 工厂订单与消费者情绪).

然而，恢复正常是不可能的.

• First, job gains will take several years to return to pre-shutdown levels. Our view that the recovery will not be V-shaped is panning out. 失业率, particularly for teenagers and non-high school graduates will remain above pre-shutdown levels for several years.
• Second, the character of many jobs will be altered, as each recession brings change. As investors, we must recognize the changes and adapt our portfolio accordingly. Travel and 休闲 sectors will take some time to find a new style of delivering consumer value. The application of technology for digitization and secure communications will be paramount. 网上购物将继续获得市场份额. Finally, healthcare will be a sustained, not short-run, winner.